There were several wildfires across New Jersey yesterday. The largest of these is the Jimmy's Waterhole Fire that has burned 2,500 acres as of early this morning. Evacuations were in place yesterday evening and I understand from this 6ABC report that these evacuation orders have been lifted and residents are allowed to return to their homes and Routes 70 and 539 are now open.
Fire Weather Planning Forecast
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
405 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
.DISCUSSION...
Southwest winds will usher a warmer and somewhat more `moist`
airmass into the region on Wednesday. That does not mean it will
not still be quite dry, from an RH standpoint. High
temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Surface dew
points will also rise well into the 40s, though. Actually
trimmed those values back a little bit given where RH ended up
on Tuesday, and particularly the MOS and HRRR suggesting
dewpoints will not reach the upper 40s until the evening. Thus
despite the much higher dewpoints than Tuesday, with temps 5 to
8 degrees higher, MinRH values on Wednesday will range around
27 to 32 percent. Winds will be around 15 mph with 20 to 25 mph
gusts. A Fire Weather Watch is now in effect for the eastern
shores of Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania. That said, winds
may only occasionally gust to the 20 mph criteria, and RH looks
marginally near the 30% criteria, while 10-hour fuel moisture
is rumored to be somewhat marginal near 10% as well. Expect at
least an SPS will be issued for elevated fire weather conditons
for our entire area, and we will see after the morning
coordination with partners if a Red Flag Warning would be more
prudent for part of our area. In any case, all of this is
semantics to a certain degree; we had several wildfires in the
area on Tuesday, including a rather large one near Lakehurst, NJ
that continues to burn over 500 acres. While RH will be a little
higher than Tuesday, conditions will still be conducive to
wildfire starts and potentially rapid spread.
Conditions for Thursday and Friday are somewhat similar to
Wednesday. As both temperatures and dew points rise into the low
80s and upper 40s/low 50s respectively, forecast min RHs remain
steady around 30 to 35 percent for much of the region. Winds do
appear to be slightly lighter though with sustained winds
around 10 to 15 mph and gusts up to 20 mph possible Thursday.
Winds are expected to be lighter still on Friday with winds
around 10 mph. As a result, meteorological conditions for fire
weather are marginal for Thursday and Friday. A Special Weather
Statement remains possible for either day.
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