2023 New Jersey Wildfire Season: Fire Weather Forecast (May 15th)

The recent Cannonball2 Wildfire that burned 107 acres in Pompton Lakes (Bergen County) NJ this past weekend coupled with recent dry weather served to remind me that wildfires of any size, including larger wildfires, can happen at any time of year. Yes, for regular readers of this blog this is obvious. I admit that I do not check the fire weather planning forecast from my local weather service -- NWS Philadelphia/Mt. Holly -- on a daily basis, I do try to monitor my local fire weather forecast during dry spells but admit that I am sometimes prompted to do so by my friends from the NJ Forest Fire Service Section B10 and others from New Jersey on social media. For those of you who live in the region covered by the NWS Philadelphia/Mt. Holly, their fire weather forecast is updated twice a day and may be found here. Those of you who live elsewhere in the United States may find your local NWS Weather Forecast Office by going to the NWS Weather Forecast Offices (link current as of May 15, 2023).

My concern for this week is that there may be fire danger in New Jersey and adjoining areas later this week. So, I will be paying attention to the fire weather forecasts issued by the NWS Philadelphia/Mt. Holly and will follow-up as warranted. Please be safe and fire aware, the Smokey the Bear and Firewise webpages have tips on how you can prevent wildfires at your home. Check your local Forest Fire Service as well as your town and/or county for local regulations. For those of you in New Jersey, the NJ Forest Fire Service has a fire danger dashboard.

FNUS51 KPHI 151406
FWFPHI

Fire Weather Planning Forecast
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1005 AM EDT Mon May 15 2023

.DISCUSSION...

Relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the 25 to 30 percent range on Tuesday afternoon across the Poconos and far  northern New Jersey. A southwest to west wind 10 to 15 MPH with gusts around 20 MPH may result in a heightened fire weather concern at that time.

Wednesday appears to be our driest and breeziest day of the week. Minimum relative humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range are expected for much of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and northern Delaware. A northwest wind 10 to 20 MPH with gusts of 25 to 30 MPH is anticipated.

Thursday is again forecast to bring dry condition in the afternoon. However, wind speeds should be only in the 5 to 10 MPH range from the northeast, becoming southeast to south.

Due to the expected conditions, we are planning to coordinate with our state fire weather partners this morning to check on fuel moisture levels and the potential need for any special fire weather products this week.