Reflections on not flying yesterday

When I last posted, I was planning on going a scenic flight yesterday. The flight did not happen and I did not do the dead reckoning calculations that I wrote about the other day. The long and the short if it is that it was too windy. But please bear with me while I elaborate a little on my thought process.

When I read the forecast for Tuesday late Sunday I knew that there was a chance of windy conditions that might make a flight in a Cessna trainer inadvisable. Then again, the forecast was only saying there was a chance. A chance of winds and an even smaller chance of rain showers.

Leave aside the winds for a moment. Temps in the high 30s and low 40s on the ground translated to temps at or below freezing aloft. Trust me on this, I read the winds and temps aloft grids. Temps at or below freezing aloft and the chance of rain. Means freezing rain aloft. Freezing rain and airplanes equal icing. Sometimes the outcome is not good.

Slight chance of showers equating to freezing rain at alitude. No thank-you.

The winds, that was interesting. Interesting because there was a chance that the forecast for the winds would not hold. The gusty winds could make a cross wind landing interesting. Perhaps not impossible but interesting. And the winds aloft would be stronger than on the ground. Winds at 12 kts on the ground gusting to 20. Winds aloft at the time of my flight forecast to be anywhere from 33 to 40 kts. And an equal chance that the winds would not be as forecast. What to do?

My scenic flight could wait. Even if my flight was that important, nothing is so important that it justifies flying when it is not safe to fly. I was prepared to cancel the scenic ride. Better to be safe than sorry. I am the passenger in this flight, I can decide to cancel. No reason for me to pressure the pilot.

I talked to someone at the airport a couple of hours later. He canceled the flight because if the forecast held, it would be too windy for the Cessna trainers. The forecast held, winds started to pick up an hour before they were forecast to pick-up.

And in case you are wondering, there may have been light rain showers yesterday. But the winds were gusting to 20 kts from the south. Which put the winds blowing directly across the main runway at the airport.

I'm glad that I was on the ground.