Reflections after a nor'easter and kudos to NWS Mt. Holly

I dedicate this today's blog article to the NWS Weather Forecast Office at Philadelphia/Mt. Holly, NJ (NWS Mt. Holly) for taking very good care of us who live in your forecast area during a nor'easter that lasted over two days. The short video that I share below speaks to my profound gratitude for what the National Weather Service does to take care of us.

Direct link to video from the National Weather Service

Every so often I take a time-out to acknowledge and reflect on recent severe weather that impacted my area. I do so today after a winter nor'easter (neat graphic from NWS Mt. Holly) that lasted a couple days here in New Jersey and environs, dumping as much as 30 inches in parts of New Jersey. NWS Mt. Holly posted an annotated satellite image of this storm here. I was lucky, under 18 inches and I am dug and plowed out, thanks to my wonderful plow guys who take good care of me. In case you are wondering, there was enough shoveling to go around, so I did some. While I did not exactly play in the snow, I accidentally rolled around in the snow. 

I am not a Meteorologist, but I know enough that forecasting winter weather poses challenges, even for the experts. Note the short video, again from the National Weather Service, on winter weather forecasting uncertainty.

Direct link to video from the National Weather Service

I am a volunteer, known as a sky warn spotter, for the NWS Mt. Holly. I went through a training course to be a spotter, and get recurrent training every three years. My primary task in the winter is to take snow fall measurements and report my measurements to NWS Mt. Holly. So, I was out in the storm every six hours, except at night, taking measurements off of my snow board (flagged so I can find it), cleaning the board off, and reporting the totals to NWS Mt. Holly. It is my great honor to be able to do this to help them out. Normally, I use two snow boards, but I decided that the trek out to my second board would be too much in that much snow, so that snow board remains buried in my back yard.

To my friends at NWS Mt. Holly, I can only imagine how hard you worked to provide us in your forecast area the best possible forecasts, with updates to the forecast to reflect changes. This was a long duration storm, over two days. I knew what to expect, fortunately, all in my household are working from home because of the pandemic. In addition to your work keeping up to date on what the nor'easter was doing, you answered phone calls from the public, press, and skywarn spotters. When I called in with my reports, you are always kind and patient. Thank-you, thank-you, thank-you. I am no longer a member of team snow, but snow is what it is and I have been living in the northeast my whole life. Nor'easters like this happen. I knew the worse case scenario, and when that scenario happened you took care of us and used your social media platforms to keep us up to date.

National Weather Service turned 150 years this week

This week the National Weather Service turned 150 years old. Wow. J


Direct link to video on Youtube.

Regular followers of this blog know how much I respect the work of the National Weather Service, from our local Weather Forecast Offices -- mine is NWS Philadephia/Mt. Holly to the River Forecast Centers with a special shout out to the Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center to the Storm Prediction Center to the Hurricane Center and to the NWS Incident Meteorologists. And this list only a partial list of all the National Weather Service does for us here in the United States. In celebration of their 150 years of service the National Weather Service has a NWS Heritage webpage chock full of links with history of the NWS, stories, and links to local Weather Forecast Offices, River Forecast Centers and other Service Units. You may go here for a brief NWS Heritage Fact Sheet

Words of thanks to all at the National Weather Service for all you do to keep us safe don't seem adequate. That being said, I thank-you with a smile on my face.


Direct link to thank-you video on Youtube.

Kudos to the National Weather Service

As we are a month into the partial shutdown of the U.S. Government, I am sure that most of you have read about the hardships faced by U.S. Government employees who are furloughed. Then there are those whose jobs are deemed of a critical nature so they are working without pay during the shutdown. The focus of this article is about our friends at the National Weather Service who are working without pay during this partial U.S, Government shutdown.

If I have not said so before, I will say it now, I hold the National Weather Service in very high regard. They are my go to place for weather information. I have the website of my local NWS Weather Forecast Office at Mt. Holly bookmarked and have a special widget on my iPad for ease of access. I know other media outlets and weather sites on the internet use the NWS radar as a source for their radar, and I have a free radar app on my iPad. Yes, the NWS forecasts as well as their various advisories, watches, and warnings are used by many media outlets and other private weather corporations. Nothing against those, but I prefer getting my weather directly from the NWS. And I have learned about meteorology by following the NWS. I serve as a volunteer for the NWS at Mt. Holly as a skywarn spotter. It is fun, and I am glad to help out. I have been serving as a skywarn spotter since Super Storm Sandy, in fact I made my very first skywarn spotter report the morning after Super Storm Sandy hit, reporting on the wind damage, our power outage, and transformer fires.

Everyone, and I mean everyone from the NWS either for this blog, or at Mt. Holly in my role as a skywarn spotter has been very professional and always helpful. Who else can you laugh with when you are making a report of ice accretion at 4 AM or laugh together when I trudge through the snow to take a snow measurement only to lose track of my snowboard because I did not do a good job marking the location of my snow board? They are dedicated and care about what they do.

We have had one of those difficult to forecast coastal lows here in the east over the weekend, and before it hit us in NJ it hit the midwest with a lot of snow. I was lucky this time, but north of us, not so much. Some areas north of us, e.g. Connecticut saw an ice storm, with snow further north. Last week California experienced winter rains along with flash flooding and debris flows on burn scars. Through it all, our friends at the NWS were working hard, often putting in longer hous to give us the information that we needed to keep safe.

Writing this post to thank all of my friends at the NWS who are working during this partial shutdown feels wholly inadequate.  But I write this to share my utmost respect for the NWS.

Here are two great articles that came across my electronic desk in the last couple of days about the NWS and the great work that they do:

• Outside Online, published January 18 2019 "The National Weather Service Our Best Federal Agency"
• NPR (January 18, 2019) Back to back snowstorms and no pay for federal weather forecasters.

CA rains: follow-up on January 18th

I am not in a position to provide a detailed follow-up to the post I wrote on January 16th where I wrote about rains continuing on burn scars in California with various Flash Flood Watches being issued by some of the Weather Forecast Office in California. I do know that there was significant rainfall in California as you can see from the map from the NWS California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) that they posted on their Facebook Page on January 18th.

Here is a map that I obtained from the CNRFC on January 18th. The orange circles indicate River gages that are at monitor stage.

Obtained at 12:08 PM PST on January 18, 2019 from https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/

What is monitoring stage? Here is an example of data as of January 18th at 8:13 AM PST from a gage on the Sacramento River at Ord Ferry just southwest of Chico, CA. The gage is located in the Sacramento River National Wildlife Refuge in Butte County, California, go to the link in preceding sentence and scroll down to see a map.

Obtained on January 18, 2019 at 12:34 PM PST from https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/graphicalRVF.php?id=ORFC1

The dotted orange link in the above graphic is the bottom of the monitor stage. The data is revised several times a day so what you see if you go the url will be different from what is displayed above.

I do know from reading storm reports from the NWS San Diego whose storm report may be found here ,and the NWS Hanford CA (their storm report is on this website) that there were several reports of flash flooding and debris flows. I do not if there was any property damage from these flash floods and debris flows.  I know from the CBS station in Los Angeles that residents in and near the Holy burn scar in the Lake Elsinore area of Riverside County were under evacuation orders on January 17th, go here to read the article. Mandatory evacuation were downgraded to voluntary orders yesterday. I believe that the voluntary evacuation orders were lifted later on January 17th.

Rains continue over burn scars in California (January 16-17)

Fortunately, predicted high hourly rainfall rates during the January 15th rain event over the burn scars in Santa Barbara County did not materialize. Santa Barbara County emergency officials had issued evacuation orders for January 15th for residents below the Thomas, and the Wittier/Sherpa burn scars. These evacuation orders were lifted at 6 PM on the 15th because the storm moved on quicker than forecast with lower rainfall rates. While I understand the inconvenience of these evacuations,  debris flows are nothing to mess around with. Safety is paramount. I am glad that these evacuation orders were in place for the safety of the residents. See this article from the San Luis Obispo Tribune for more information.

Southern and Central California will see more rain this afternoon, January 16th, into Thursday January 17th.  Note revised on January 17th at 2:30 PM to include NWS Sacramento CA

See this graphic from NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard:

Obtained on January 16, 2019 from https://www.weather.gov/lox/

And this graphic from the NWS Hanford CA:

Obtained on January 16, 2018 from https://www.weather.gov/hnx/

Here is a graphic from the NWS Sacramento CA:

Obtained on January 17, 2019 from NWS Sacramento CA FB page: here

And finally, this graphic from the NWS San Diego CA:

obtained on January 16, 2019 from https://www.weather.gov/sgx/

Flash Flood Watches (be prepared!) issued by some of the California NWS Weather Forecast Offices on January 16th for portions of their forecast areas that include burn scars:

• Flash Flood Watch issued by NWS Hanford for the Ferguson, Railroad and Pier burn scars.
• Flash Flood Watch issued by NWS Sacramento for the Carr, Delta, and  Mirtz burn scars
• Flash Flood Watch issued by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard for the Woolsey, Hill. South, and Stone burn scars.
• Flash Flood Watch issued by NWS San Diego for the Holy Fire burn scar.

The National Weather Service has a good page on flood safety, information about flood advisories, watches and warnings may be found here. I wrote a longer article on NWS Advisories, Watches and Warnings with a Focus on Fire Weather with a discussion on post-fire debris flows and Flash Flood Warnings.

About NWS Warnings with attention to fire weather

Some of you may have notice that in the last day I have a new page on this blog, NWS Advisories, Watches & Warnings, where I have posted a long article that I wrote called National Weather Service Advisories, Watches, & Warnings with a Focus on Fire Weather.

Late last summer I got in a conversation with a couple of friends of mine about the difference between Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings issued by local National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFO). I wanted to give them some good information so with the help of a couple friends from a couple of NWS WFO including my very own NWS Mt Holly WFO, I made some notes about Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings. To make a long story short, I did more reading on NWS websites. As I read more, I realized that I wanted to expand my notes into a longer article with the intention of providing information for the general public about various NWS advisories, watches and warnings focusing on fire weather.

The result is an article that is a little over six pages on my word processor. I was helped along the way by several NWS meteorologists from NWS WFOs around the country, including the Mt. Holly (Philadelphia) WFO. In addition, I was helped by a retired NWS meteorologist. They answered my questions, and provided new insights and where there when I wanted to know if my thinking was correct.

I hope that some of you find this article useful. It is my hope that this article will apply to those of you in rural as well as suburban and urban areas. Further while there is a special focus on fire weather; some of the advisories, watches and warnings I write about apply in situations where there are no current or recent wildland fires. There are numerous NWS links in the article that you can refer to for further information.

You will note that I refer to this article near the top right hand side of my blog for ease of reference. 

2018 Hurricane Season: extra weather balloon launches for Hurricane Florence

I have blogged about the upper air data gathered by the National Weather Service (NWS) from weather balloons known as the upper air observation program. There are about 90 NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) that join other sites around the world in the upper air observation program by launching weather balloons with a radiosonde with sensors that record some weather data as the balloon ascends into the upper atmosphere. These "weather balloons" are launched per international agreement at the same time, at midnight and noon UTC. One of the important uses of this upper air data is that it is fed into the weather models that the NWS meteorologists and meteorologists from around the world use to come up with their weather forecasts.

I have written elsewhere about how NWS incident meteorologists will sometimes launch balloons for upper air observations to aid their fire weather forecasting.The data gathered by these balloon launches is also used by the National Hurricane Center in their hurricane forecast models.

Every so often when a large storm is threatening the U.S. the National Weather Service adds two extra weather balloon launches at 6AM and 6PM UTC, making for four balloon launches six hours apart. This was done in January 2016 for a large snow storm/blizzard that hit the east coast, see my January 2016 post on weather balloons. This week, many NWS WFOs in the upper air observation program, most but not all in the eastern half of the country, launched two additional weather balloons (one every six hours) to provide additional data for the NHC hurricane models. The NWS WFO Buffalo NY has a nice twitter post explaining balloon launches, with some nice graphics and photos.

I have two videos to share with you on upper air balloon launches. One shows a fairly typical balloon launch on a day that is not too windy.


Direct link to video from the City of Tampa

The second video is very short video from the NWS WFO Newport/Morehead NC, shared on their facebook page, go here to see the short video. The balloon launch was on or about September 13th. Note that because of the windy conditions, two people are holding on to the balloon as they exit the upper air building prior to launching the balloon.

I understand from a friend at the NWS WFO Norman Oklahoma that WFOs in Texas and Oklahoma stopped launching the two extra balloons as of today, September 14th, but WFOs to the east are continuing with the two extra balloon launches.

Red Flag Warnings in Northern CA this weekend (0ct 13 - 15)

If you are arriving at this post after October 15th, the video is still worth watching so you can see an example of how NWS Weather Forecast Offices work to warn those in their forecast area of life threatening weather conditions.

A little more on how IMETs use Weather Balloons

I was writing recently about what a National Weather Service Incident Meteorologist (aka IMET) does when they are assigned to a wildfire, see for example my August 10th article. One of the questions that I had was how an IMET might use a weather balloon and how does the radiosnode attached to the weather balloon transmit data while the balloon is ascending. That is, what might the data look like. Well, I found one answer to this question as I was poking around the internet this afternoon.

Please watch these two videos that I will embed below. In the first video, Ryan Walbrun, an IMET that was assigned to the Sobranes Fire (burned 72,566 acres in and near Los Padres National Forest, CA, and is at 60 percent containment) is interviewed. You will hear Mr. Walbrun discuss what IMETs do and what he did as an IMET on the Sobranes. One of the things that he discusses is that he monitored the height of the marine layer.

Direct link to video uploaded by NWS San Francisco Bay Area/Monterey CA (Here is the website for the NWS San Francisco)

In the second video, you will see the IMET and his assistants launch the weather balloon, here about how Mr. Walbrun will use the data from the weather balloon to monitor the height of the marine layer (among other things), and get a chance to see some of the data that the radisnode is transmitting. Very cool, this brings out the weather geek in me.

Direct link to video from NWS San Francisco

NJ Forest Fire Crew demobilized & more on IMETs

After I made yesterday's (August 10th) post , I found out that the New Jersey Forest Fire Service crew (NJS #1) has been demobilized from the Roaring Lion Fire. Not only did I see this reported on social media, but I also saw this reported on the August 10th Eastern Area Interagency Resources Representative (IARR) Crew Report, the latest report is available here. The IARR is, I think, updated a few times a week while crews from the Eastern Area are deployed outside the eastern area, so what you see may be different from the IARR that I saw last night. The IARR is available from the Eastern Area Coordination Center.

I'd like to thank the NJS #1 crew for all the good work that you did working the Roaring Lion Fire which has burned 8,274 acres to date and is at 65 percent containment. I understand that the crew visited the Smokejumper base in Missoula Montana, you may see their photo below.

I'm not quite sure if NJS #1 crew is coming home now or if they are going somewhere else. I'll update this post as I find out what they are doing.



And speaking of the Roaring Lion Fire, recall that I wrote about the IMET, Dan Borsum from NWS Billings Montana yesterday. I was able to get in touch with Mr. Borsum via e-mail yesterday thanks to the NWS Billings MT who forwarded my e-mail to him. I am very impressed by his dedication as an IMET to providing weather forecasts and briefings to keep all the firefighters working the Roaring Lion fire safe including but not limited to those from outside the area (like the NJS #1 crew and other crews from the east) who may have been unfamiliar with the area.

The Roaring Lion Fire is in the Bitterroot National Forest which includes some mountainous terrain. I know enough to know that  weather forecasts involving mountainous terrain such as the mountains in the Bitterroot National Forest can be challenging. I am again left with a renewed appreciation for the complex nature of weather forecasting, including fire weather forecasting. I was chatting with a now retired wildland firefighter last night about IMETs, he commented to me that IMETs save a lot of lives. Nice work Dan! Thank-you all IMETs.

Dan shared a photo with me of a thunderstorm that affected one of the camps at the Roaring Lion Fire one night. He gave me permission to share this with you. Wow. I'm glad that you were there to keep all safe from these thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm impacting Roaring Lion Camp

Roaring Lion Fire - Incident Meteorologist

I have been writing about the Roaring Lion Fire recently, see my August 3rd and August 8th articles, because the New Jersey Forest Fire Service has a crew that is working the Roaring Lion Fire along with other crews from the Eastern Area. As I write this, the Roaring Lion Fire (in the Bitterroot National Forest near Hamilton Montana) remains at 8,274 acres and is at 60 percent containment, perhaps thanks in part to some cool and wet weather yesterday (see this August 9th report from KXLH 9 with video). Evacuation orders are still in place.

I want to take the opportunity to draw your attention to the very important work done by IMETs, also known as Incident Meteorologists. As I understand it, Incident Meteorologists are National Weather Service Meteorologists that have received special training to provide on-site weather forecasting services to incidents including but not necessarily limited to wildfires. Deployments typically last two weeks or until the wildfire is maintained, see this article on IMETs from the National Weather Service for more information. I am introducing IMETs now because there is an IMET working the Roaring Lion Fire, he describes what being an IMET involves in this video (uploaded on Aug 7th) that I found on Inciweb's Roaring Lion Fire photo page. One of the things that an IMET does is to launch a Weather Balloon with a radiosonde. A radiosonde has a variety of instruments to take upper air readings that Meteorologists use to help them make forecasts. Here is a very short video of the Roaring Lion Fire IMET launching a weather balloon. Here is an article describing yesterday's weather on the Roaring Lion Fire from NBC Montana.

I'd like to thank the IMET, Dan Borsum from the NWS Billings Montana Office, for all that he is doing providing meteorological services to the Roaring Lion Fire, to help the fire crews stay safe and work the fire effectively. Thank-you Dan! I share a brief reflection on what I am learning about IMETs and share a photo that Dan shared with me to share with you in my August 11th post.

Thanks to my friends from the NWS Mt. Holly for helping me with a brief fact check in writing this article.

Personal reflections on Fire Weather Forecasting (part 5 of 5)

I have been considering and reflecting on what to share in this final “reflections” post to wrap up my series, “About Red Flag Warnings & other Fire Weather products from National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs).” I think that I can let the articles that I wrote (see bottom of this post for a list with links) stand for themselves. However in parting, I have six reflections or thoughts that I'd like to share with you.

1) As I reflected on what I had learned in researching and then writing my series on “About Red Flag Warnings & other Fire Weather products from NWS WFOs”, I found myself thinking early on in this process that fire weather and fire weather forecasting is complicated. I came away thinking that I had no idea just how complicated fire weather and fire weather forecasting is before I started doing background research for this series. 

2) I have a great deal of respect for the NWS WFOs who issue Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Forecasts. To all at the NWS WFOs, I say thank-you, thank-you, thank-you. I know that wildland firefighters on the ground and in the air use Red Flag Warnings (RFW) and other Fire Weather Forecasts to know how the weather is affecting their fire. To all of you who work fires on the ground and in the air and on support teams I say thank-you, thank-you, thank-you. 

3) I call myself an ordinary citizen who is interested in knowing about current weather forecasts, including fire weather forecasts in my corner of New Jersey in the United States. So I go to my local WFO website and keep an eye out to see if they have issued any Fire Weather Watches or Red Flag Warnings. Sometimes not all the RFW criteria will be met, but conditions will warrant the issuance of a Special Weather Statement for Enhanced Fire Danger. For example, perhaps the relative humidity (RH) is below RFW criteria but the winds and fuel moisture criteria are above RFW criteria, so the local NWS WFO will issue a Special Weather Statement for Enhanced Fire Danger (or another product with similar wording). I appreciate knowing about any possibility of enhanced fire danger if for no other reason than I can be more vigilant. Often local media will pick up on upcoming Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings.

4) I don’t know about you but I do try to be fire aware on any day and try not do anything that might lead to a wildfire. I am especially mindful to be extra careful on days when Red Flag Warnings or Enhanced Fire Danger Warnings are issued by my local NWS WFO. These are some of things that are on my list: I no longer smoke, but if you are a smoker being careful not throw a cigarette on the ground. Also on my list are no outdoor burning, checking my car for a pipe that might drag on the road, if I am camping checking for current camp fire regulations and perhaps going the extra mile and not lighting a camp fire, being sure that camp fires are fully extinguished, and if I am going to compost ashes from your indoor fireplace or wood burning stove I will be sure that ashes are fully extinguished. Your State fire agency will have a list of what you should and should not do on a high fire danger day. Of course, it is always good to be fire aware even if you are not under a RFW. 

5) Thank your local NWS WFO, social media is great for this. Whether it be RFW or warning us about any weather event (flood, hurricane, snow storms, thunderstorms and tornadoes to name a few), they are all about keeping us safe. 

6) Finally, a prayer, meditation, or thought for wildland firefighters doesn’t hurt. 

Articles in this series:

June 27, 2016: About Red Flag Warnings & other Fire Weather products from NWS WFOs -- Intro (part 1 of 5)

June 29, 2016: Framework for discussion of Red Flag Warnings and other Fire Weather Products issued by NWS WFOs (part 2 of 5)

July 1, 2016: NWS Mt. Holly Fire Weather Products part 1 (part 3 of 5)

July 4, 2016: NWS Mt. Holly Fire Weather Products part 2 (part 4 of 5)

NWS Mt. Holly Fire Weather Products Part 2 (part 4 of 5)

Today I continue with the second part of my interview with Lee Robertson, fire weather focal point for the National Weather Service (NWS), Mt. Holly NJ. This is part 4 of a 5 part series "about red flag warnings & other fire weather productions from NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs)." For those of you who are landing here, in part 2 of this series I provided a framework for discussion of red flag warnings and other fire weather products. The first part of my interview with Lee Roberts is presented in part 3, posted on July 1st.

As you continue reading my interview with Lee, please remember that fire weather operations in the NWS Mt. Holly are appropriate for the fire regime in the Mt. Holly Forecast Area. Further Mt. Holly’s fFire Weather Operations Plan is customized for their core audience (or partners). Mt. Holly Fire Weather Operations Plan that is available at http://www.weather.gov/phi/fire under “additional fire weather information”

Q5. Random Ramblings: 6. Where does Mt. Holly get their observations from, I noted some observation sites on your fire weather page. And what is included. Can you add anything to what I can read in the sites linked to on your fire weather page?

Lee: Our observations come from a variety of places.  The main observation is Automated Surface Observation System or ASOS, which we use for everything from Aviation, to public forecasting.  There is the RAWS network which are the sites listed on our Fire Weather page.  There is also the Citizen Weather Observation Program aka CWOP network.  

Note: ASOS observations are available at This FAA website for ASOD observations (click on your State in the map). RAWS and CWOP observations are available at from this Mesowest website based in Utah, where you can select your state and then use a drop down box to select the observations you want to see (ASOS observations are also available at the same Mesowest website based in Utah where they are listed as “NWS”).

Q6. Random Ramblings: How often does Mt. Holly issue your Fire Weather Forecast (FWF) and if issued, your Red Flag Warnings?

Lee: We update our Fire Weather Forecast (FWF) twice daily; around 4 am and 4 pm.  This was changed from only 4 am several years ago to give an updated forecast to the next day for our fire weather partners.  When conditions are not representative to the forecast, such as relative humidity being much lower than forecast (for instance 20% occurring, versus 35% forecast) our forecasters should be updating the forecast.  Also, if a Red Flag Warning is issued, the FWF is to be updated as well.  

Q7. Random Ramblings: Can you briefly talk about the spot weather forecasts that Mt. Holly issues?

Lee: Spot Forecasts are requested by our Fire Weather partners when they need weather information for a specific locations when they are working individual fires.  Sometimes they request Spot Forecast for prescribed burns, other times they request Spots when an active wildfire is ongoing.  Other times, we do not get any requests from them because they are able to use the FWF and current conditions to suit their needs.  There is a website where they can request the Spot Forecast, and access the actual forecast output when we issue it.  Once they send their request, an alert pops up on our screen in our office and we work up our forecast, then send it out.  Depending on forecaster workload and other factors, once the request is issued, it can take as little as 5 minutes, sometime up to 15-20 minutes to show up on the website.  Our partners also have our number, so if there is a concern about the foreast or if they didn't get it, they can always call us.

On July 6th I will close out this series with some reflections on what I have learned while researching and then writing this series about red flag warnings & other fire weather productions from NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs).

Other Articles in the series

June 27, 2016: About Red Flag Warnings & other Fire Weather products from NWS WFOs -- Intro (part 1 of 5)

June 29, 2016: Framework for discussion of Red Flag Warnings and other Fire Weather Products issued by NWS WFOs (part 2 of 5)

July 1, 2016: NWS Mt. Holly Fire Weather Products part 1 (part 3 of 5)

July 4, 2016: NWS Mt. Holly Fire Weather Products part 2 (part 4 of 5)

July 6, 2016: Personal reflections on Fire Weather Forecasting (part 5 of 5)

NWS Mt. Holly Fire Weather Products Part 1 (part 3 of 5)

Recall that I live in the NWS Mt. Holly’s weather forecast area. I’d like to thank Lee Robertson, fire weather focal point for the National Weather Service (NWS), Mt. Holly NJ. Lee and I spent a few e-mails discussing the fire weather operations in NWS Mt. Holly. As you read my interview with Lee, please remember that fire weather operations in the NWS Mt. Holly are appropriate for the fire regime in the Mt. Holly Forecast Area. Further Mt. Holly’s Fire Weather Operations Plan is customized for their core audience (or partners). Mt. Holly Fire Weather Operations Plan that is available at http://www.weather.gov/phi/fire under “additional fire weather information.”

This is part 1 of my interview with Lee Robertson, part 2 will post on Monday, July 4th.

Q1: Random Ramblings: I understand that NWS Mt. Holly’s Red Flag Warning Criteria, from the Mt. Holly Fire Weather Operations Plan, are as follows:

PA: wind >=20 mph (sustained/frequent gusts), Relative Humidity <=30%, 10 hour fuels <=10% 

NJ: wind >=20 mph (sustained/frequent gusts), Relative Humidity <=30%, 10 hour fuels <=10%

DE and MD: wind >=20 mph (sustained), Relative Humidity <=30%, 10 hour fuels <=8%

I have read the Mt. Holly Fire Weather Operations Plan. I understand that a Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions (red flag warnings) may happen in the next 12 to 72 hours. Red flag warnings are issued by NWS office when critical fire weather conditions are imminent expecting to occur within the next 12 to 24 hours, The exact criteria vary from office to office.  I know that your fire weather plan uses other language to describe when you issue a Fire Weather Watch and Red Flag Warnings, but I want to use hours here because I think that this is language that everyone will recognize. Finally, you will sometimes issue a special weather statement for elevated fire risk. Can you elaborate on these fire weather products?

Lee: There really isn't much other way to describe Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watch and their criteria.  Fire Weather Watches (PHLRFWPHL) are issued for the 2nd, 3rd or 4th 12 hour period of a forecast (24-48 hours). A Red Flag Warning (also PHLRFWPHL) is issued for the 1st or 2nd period of a forecast (12-24 hours).  The three criteria ALL have to be met at the same time to be considered a Red Flag Warning.  Some regions/offices have more or less criteria, but it's the same that all criteria have to be met.  If say, the Relative Humidity is not less than 30%, then it would not be a Red Flag Warning day even if winds gust to 30 mph and fuels are dry, and same for the other ones not being met.  You listed the criteria.  We forecast the RH (relative humidity) and Wind Speeds.  Fuel moisture is determined by our Forestry partners.  We coordinate with them to see who fuels have reacted to recent rainfall and drying conditions to determine of a RFW is needed.  Sometimes it is determined that fuels are not critically dry, or winds and/or RH will be marginal, and a RFW is not needed, so we may issue a Special Weather Statement to highlight the threat so people can be aware of the dangers of fires, and also give a heads up to our fire partners that it could be a dangerous day, but not critical RFW conditions.  We coordinate via a chat system with our neighboring NWS offices about the conditions we expect, and then coordinate with our Forestry partners our concerns for the day and determine what statements, if any, will be needed whether that be an RFW or SPS (Special Weather Statement) or a mentions in our Synopsis in our Forecast Discussion.

Q2. Random Ramblings: Who are Mt. Holly’s forestry partners? Do you have any idea how your forestry partners determine fuel moisture?

Lee: Yes, our partners are the Forestry/Forest Fire Services with each state.  

They have instruments in the field that give them actual measurements for fuel moisture.  But they also take into account recent rainfall and drying.

Q3. Random Ramblings: I know that the SPC does fire weather forecasts, can you briefly explain how Mt. Holly interfaces with SPC regarding forecast fire danger?

Lee: SPC does do a Fire Weather Forecast that covers the entire country.  They have specific criteria that they use to determine if they will issue an enhanced, critical, or extreme fire weather day.  You can view their criteria here. Again, we coordinate via our chat system concerns on either end.  There are days when they will have us in an outlook and our partners are less concerned due to fuels not as dry as thought, and there will be days when we have statements out when no outlook is in effect for various reasons, one being SPS uses Temperature as a criteria, while we do not.

Q4. Random Ramblings: How does Mt. Holly coordinate with adjoining office on fire weather forecasts. For example on March 23, 2016 (the day I first wrote Lee) Upton issued a special weather statement for elevated fire risk a couple of hours before you did. Did you talk to them?

Lee: As mentioned above, we have a chat system we use to coordinate with neighboring offices, or we use a phone call.

Other Articles in the series

June 27, 2016: About Red Flag Warnings & other Fire Weather products from NWS WFOs -- Intro (part 1 of 5)

June 29, 2016: Framework for discussion of Red Flag Warnings and other Fire Weather Products issued by NWS WFOs (part 2 of 5)

July 1, 2016: NWS Mt. Holly Fire Weather Products part 1 (part 3 of 5)

July 4, 2016: NWS Mt. Holly Fire Weather Products part 2 (part 4 of 5)

July 6, 2016: Personal reflections on Fire Weather Forecasting (part 5 of 5)

Framework for discussion of Red Flag Warnings and other Fire Weather Products issued by NWS WFOs (part 2 of 5)

Recall from my introduction to this series that I am writing a five-part series about Red Flag Warnings & other Fire Weather products from NWS WFOs. This is part two.

In parts three and four of this series, I will discuss fire weather operations used by my local  Weather Forecast Office (NWS), the NWS in Mt. Holly. Before I get to parts three and four, I need to begin by providing a basic framework for these later discussions of NWS Mt. Holly’s Fire Weather Operations. Before I go any further, I want to thank several new friends from various National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices for listening to me and answering my questions. These articles would not be possible without their help.

1. I found the concept of fire regimes very helpful as I was researching these articles. Thanks to a friend who is a NWS meteorologist knowledgeable about wildland fires for referring me to the definition of fire regimes that I am using here. “An important concept in fire ecology that captures many interactions between fire and vegetation types, landscape settings and climate Zones is the fire regime. A fire regime can be thought of as a recipe made up of various interrelated components shaped by both vegetation and climate.; it can be defined as ‘the pattern of repeated fires expressed as a frequency, season, type, severity, and areal extent" (Fire on Earth: An Introduction by Scott, Bowman, Bond, Payne and Alexander, 2014, p. 125).

2. When considering the fire weather forecasting criteria used by each National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (NWS WFO), remember that the Red Flag Warning Criteria and the Fire Weather Forecasts used by each NWS WFO is appropriate for the fire regimes and related weather conditions in each NWS WFO’s forecast area.

3. Each NWS WFO has a fire weather operations plan setting out the criteria they use for their fire weather operations. This plan follows criteria set forth by National Weather Service Directives under operations and services for NDS 10-4 Products and Services to Support Fire and Other Incidents. A document called NDS 10-4 Products and Services to Support Fire and Other Incidents provides a summary a list of all the procedural directives supporting fire and other incidents that may be found under NDS 10-4. The plan may be written by the individual WFO or it may be written by the State referring to the WFO in state. In some cases, there is a regional fire weather operation plan which refers to the individual fire weather operations plan for each WFO in the region. If you are interested in the fire weather operations for your local WFO look around on the NWS webpage for your local WFO for fire weather information.

4. In writing their Fire Weather Operations Plan (which includes but is not limited to the Red Flag Warning Criteria they use), each NWS WFO recognizes who is the core audience for their Fire Weather Operations Plan and customizes this plan as appropriate. As the WFO adopts or revises their Fire Weather Operations Plan and their Red Flag Warning criteria they will do so in collaboration with their core fire partner agencies (one example could be a State Forest Fire Agency)

Next Up:

July 1, 2016: NWS Mt. Holly Fire Weather Products part 1 (part 3 of 5)

July 4, 2016: NWS Mt. Holly Fire Weather Products part 2 (part 4 of 5)

July 6, 2016: Personal reflections on Fire Weather Forecasting (part 5 of 5)

About Red Flag Warnings & other Fire Weather products from NWS WFOs -- Intro (part 1 of 5)

This past spring I got interested in learning a little more about the different fire weather products issued by the National Weather Service (NWS). Now, I had known of Red Flag Warnings issued by local NWS Weather Forecast Offices (NWS WFO) for quite some time. Sometime later, I had an awareness that the Storm Prediction Center was involved in fire weather. So, in early April, I started out by learning more about the Storm Prediction Center’s Fire Weather Outlooks, in a three part series that I wrote starting on April 1st (with links to other articles in the series),  

Even as I was finishing up my series on the SPC’s Fire Weather Outlooks, I knew that fire weather, like weather in general is complicated. I knew that I had to learn more, so I  took some time to do some background research on the internet, some additional reading, and some discussions with some wonderful Meteorologists from around the country as well as from my local NWS Weather Forecast Office.  The result is this series.

The more I learned, the more I respected the complexity of Fire Weather Forecasting and my respect for the NWS Meteorologists increased. 

Here is a schedule of the articles in this series (About Red Flag Warnings & other Fire Weather products from NWS WFOs):

June 29, 2016: Framework for discussion of Red Flag Warnings and other Fire Weather Products issued by NWS WFOs (part 2 of 5)

July 1, 2016: NWS Mt. Holly Fire Weather Products part 1 (part 3 of 5)

July 4, 2016: NWS Mt. Holly Fire Weather Products part 2 (part 4 of 5)

July 6, 2016: Personal reflections on Fire Weather Forecasting (part 5 of 5)

A little more about what SPC fire weather forecasts are and are not (3 of 3)

When I started writing about the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center's (SPC) fire weather outlooks on April 1st, I referred to their "product info". As you read the criteria that the SPC uses to make their fire weather outlooks you will note that relative humidity (RH) at or below regional thresholds is given as one of the criteria. My understanding of RH is that the lower the value, the drier the air is, so a low RH value is one of the factors conducive to the threat of wildfires. Others including  gusty winds, high temperatures, dry fuels, and dry lightning.

I was interested in learning that there are regional variations for relative humidity (RH) thresholds used by the SPC in their fire weather outlooks as depicted in this graphic linked to on the SPC Fire Weather Outlook Product Information page. For example, an RH value of less than 30 percent in New Jersey is one of the factors conducive to the issuance of a critical fire weather outlook for that State. For Florida, the RH threshold increases to less than 35 percent while for much of the southwest (including California) the RH threshold is below 15 percent.

One final and important point about what the SPC does and does not do in regards to fire weather. As I have discussed above, the SPC issues fire weather outlooks. They do not issue fire weather watches or red flag warnings. Rather it is the local NWS offices that issue Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings. Either the local NWS office or the State will determine the Red Flag Criteria. To see what the Red Flag Criteria is on your location (US only) go to the webpage for your local NWS office (http://www.weather.gov/) and look around on their page for fire information you should find information about what the red flag criteria are for your area. The NWS glossary of fire weather terms provides some definitions that you might find helpful:

Fire weather watch - A watch issued when the forecaster feels reasonably confident that red flag conditions will develop in the next 12 to 48 hours.

Red flag criteria - A locally determined set of criteria that expresses environmental and meteorological conditions that would provide for fire starts and rapid, dangerous fire spread.

Red flag warning - A warning issued by fire weather forecasters when red flag criteria are met or expected to be met within 12-24 hours. The warning highlights weather of particular importance to fire behavior and potentially extreme burning conditions or many new fires. It is also used to alert customers to changes in weather that increase the fire danger. Red flag warnings should always be coordinated with the customer. [As I understand it, customer is used here to mean a local agency such as a State Forest Fire Service or a Federal land agency such as the US Forest Service.]

________________________

This is all I have for now on fire weather outlooks and forecasting. I am continuing to read. And I hope to be able to share more of this journey of learning about fire weather forecasting some time soon.

About the US NWS SPC fire weather forecast process (2 of 3)

Here is a video of Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Assistant/Fire Weather Forecaster Ariel Cohen. Mr. Cohen describes the SPC fire weather forecast process for a meteorology class at the University of Oklahoma. Allow just under 12 minutes to watch the video.



Direct link to video

About Fire Wx Outlooks from NWS Storm Prediction Center (1 of 3)

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a few products, the one of interest to me today is their Fire Weather Outlooks  . The SPC issues fire weather outlooks for current day 1 Fire Weather Outlook (today), current day 2 Fire Weather Outlook (outlook for tomorrow) and 3 to 8 day outlooks. Each of these outlooks are available from the Fire Weather Outlooks page.

You don’t have to go far to find more information on what is in the SPC Fire Weather Outlooks, there is a link called “Product Info” on the main page. You might want to spend a little time reading the SPC’s description of their Fire Weather Outlooks, it is short and I found it easy to understand. I’ll highlight a couple of things that I am interested in.

The Fire Weather Outlooks issued by the SPC “consists of a categorical forecast that graphically depicts fire weather risk areas across the continental United States, along with a text narrative. Through various labels and colors on the graphic, the five types of Fire Weather Outlook risk areas are:

• ELEVATED (orange) - Elevated risk from wind and relative humidity
• CRITICAL (red) - Critical risk from wind and relative humidity
• EXTREME (magenta) - Extremely Critical risk from wind and relative humidity
• ISODRYT (brown) - Elevated risk from dry thunderstorms
• SCTDRYT (red) - Critical risk from dry thunderstorms” (obtained on March 30, 2016 from http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/about.html#FireWx)

The product information document describes the criteria used for critical and extremely critical areas as well as a short description of their different outlooks. I’ll leave it to you read the document, a downloadable version may be found for pdf and ms-word. I am not including the ms-word link because it may download automatically to your computer, I will leave it to you download that file if you want it.

Upcoming on SPC Fire Weather Outlooks

Monday April 4, 2016: A video of Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Assistant/Fire Weather Forecaster Ariel Cohen. Mr. Cohen describes the SPC fire weather forecast process for a meteorology class at the University of Oklahoma.

Wednesday April 6, 2016: A little more from the SPC on fire weather outlooks are and are not.