The NWS Storm Prediction Center issued their daily fire weather outlooks earlier today. I am interested in their day two outlook (April 19th). In this case, day two is April 19th. As you can see from the map below, portions of the mid-atlantic and the northeast, including New Jersey are under an elevated fire weather outlook. Recall that I wrote three articles on SPC Fire Weather outlooks here (with links to all articles in the series). The NWS Storm Prediction updates their Fire Weather Outlook page daily.
|NWS Storm Prediction Center's Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook, issued on April 18, 2016 for April 19, 2016|
Here is the text issued by the SPC that goes with the map above.:
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 181709 DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z AN ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER AREA IS INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...WHERE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODESTLY REDUCED RH VALUES AND QUITE DRY FINE FUELS. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES ONLY MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL DRYING...DIURNAL MIXING AMIDST A CONSIDERABLY DRY AIR MASS /PW VALUES AROUND 0.2-0.4 INCHES/ SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR RH VALUES BELOW 30-35 PERCENT. IN COMBINATION WITH SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH...THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS. ..PICCA.. 04/18/2016 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0230 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016/ ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW THAT REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY EWD ON TUESDAY...LIKELY REACHING CNTRL NEB BY 12Z WED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE E OF MS RIVER...CONTRIBUTING TO ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND RH VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THIS REGION THAN ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY...MITIGATING THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. FARTHER S /MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST/...MIN RH VALUES FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT ARE ANTICIPATED BUT WEAK WINDS WILL KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT LOW. IN ALL...THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ACROSS THE CONUS ON TUESDAY.
All areas mapped out in the SPC Day 2 (April 19, 2016) Fire Outlook Map (see above) as being under an elevated fire weather outlook are now under a fire weather watch issued by their local National Weather Service Forecast Office, see the map below. If you are interested in fire information for your state or region -- fire weather watches or red flag warnings issued by your local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office -- one starting point is the NWS Fire Weather Page (information updated at least once a day). The image below is a static file (updated frequently) from the National Weather Service (fire weather watches are in yellow). You can get the same information by going to the National Weather Service and clicking on the area you are interested in. You will then get the website for the local NWS Weather Forecasting Office providing forecasts for the area of a State that you are interested in, then look around for local fire weather information.
|obtained on April 18, 2016 (5 PM EDT) from from http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/fire/briefing.php|
Here is the fire weather watch issued by my NWS Forecast Office in Mt. Holly NJ.
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 200 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054- 055-060>062-070-071-101>106-191000- /O.NEW.KPHI.FW.A.0001.160419T1600Z-160420T0000Z/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON- SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND- ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH- NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER- WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- 200 PM EDT MON APR 18 2016 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA...NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE... AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...25 TO 30 PERCENT. * IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP MAY QUICKLY GET OUT OF CONTROL AND BECOME DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND DRY FUELS. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT WILDFIRE DANGER...BURN RESTRICTIONS...AND WILDFIRE PREVENTION AND EDUCATION...PLEASE VISIT YOUR STATE FORESTRY OR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION WEBSITE.