It is late May and according to the US National Weather Service Incident Meteorologist (IMETs) Office (see their Facebook post that I have embedded below), "we are running below the 10-year average for both wildfires and acres burned so far this year (2023)". Now it is still early in the wildfire season in much of the western United States and many areas saw winter rainfall much above normal. While the rain was welcome leading to growth of vegetation, I am concerned that if the weather pattern changes to a stretch of dry weather that conditions will be ripe for increased fire danger. Of course, I am neither a Meteorologist nor am a wildland firefighter, but am someone who is concerned.
Before I get to the IMETs, I checked out the latest National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued on May 1st by Predictive Services at the National Interagency Fire Center, they say in part:
Significant fire activity continued to increase across the Southern, Southwest, Rocky Mountain, and Eastern Areas in April, but a portion of the Southern Area observed a decrease in significant fire activity at the end of the month due to green-up. Significant fire activity remained minimal elsewhere across the West and Alaska. Green-up is well underway across much of the West, but fuel moistures are decreasing across the lower elevations of the Southwest and portions of southern California. Year-to-date acres burned for the US is 55% of the 10-year average, with a below average number of fires, nearly 83% of average.
Precipitation decreased significantly across much of the southwestern US in April, with below normal precipitation extending through the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Above normal precipitation was confined to the Northwest, portions of the Texas coast, and Great Lakes. Below normal temperatures were widespread across the West, and despite the below average precipitation, little snowmelt occurred, with record or near record snow water equivalent (SWE) values remaining in the Sierra, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona. Temperatures were above normal in Florida and the Northeast. Drought continued to improve across most of the West, but drought emerged or worsened in Florida and the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, while severe and extreme drought continued on portions of the southern and central Plains. (accessed on May 24, 2023 from National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued on May 1st issued by Predictive Services of the National Interagency Fire Center).
The main page of Predictive Services at the National Interagency Fire Center may be found here where you can access weekly, monthly and seasonal fire weather outlooks; fuels and fire danger; weather products; and intelligence.
While it is not yet a busy wildfire season for the IMETs, they have been involved in a few missions, at least one was to help out with at least one prescribed burn in Colorado. In addition to deployments to North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. See their Facebook below for more details. I know that the IMETs are a national resource and are available for deployment anywhere in the U.S. and have helped out over seas in years past (e.g. in Australia in December 2019 and again on January 13th 2020 and at least once more during Australias's 2019-20 wildfire season on January 29th 2020. IMETs save lives! Thanks to all IMETs for your current and upcoming service to help wildland firefighters stay safe, deployments may last as long as two weeks and sometimes more than one IMET is deployed to a wildfire.
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