I begin todays post on the atmospheric rivers by sharing excerpts from the Short Range Forecast Discussion issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center on January 11th at 3AM EST where they discussed an atmospheric river forecasted to impact northern California and other areas of the pacific northwest on January 11th through January 12th.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 11 2023 - 12Z Fri Jan 13 2023
...Next Atmospheric River event to impact northern California today, spreading up the Pacific Northwest coast on Thursday...
Following another day of heavy precipitation and gusty winds across California, the storm system associated with the recent unrelenting series of atmospheric river events has moved well inland and is currently bringing mountain snows across the Intermountain West and into much of the central Rockies. Meanwhile, an enormous cyclone rotating well off the West Coast will bring the next round of heavy precipitation and gusty winds today, this time targeting northern California. Unlike the recent atmospheric river events, this upcoming event is forecast to impact areas farther north from northern California and up the coast of the Pacific Northwest through the next few days. The heaviest rains are expected to impact northwestern California through the next couple of days with a few inches of rain possible. By later on Thursday, the threat of heavy rain will reach the Olympic Peninsula where a few inches of rain is possible as well.
As I wrote yesterday, January 10th, I was speechless and saddened by the devastating impacts of the January 9th and 10th atmospheric river event in much of California. I did my best to try to peruse affected NWS Weather Forecast Offices that were impacted by this atmospheric river focusing on debris flows on wildland fire burn scars. I focused on the following four NWS Forecast Offices:
- NWS Forecast Office Los Angeles CA
- NWS Forecast Office San Francisco Bay Area CA
- NWS Forecast Office Sacramento CA
- NWS Forecast Office Hanford/San Joaquin Valley CA
From what I could see from following these Weather Forecast Offices and conversations with Meteorologists from three of the four aforementioned Weather Forecast Offices, I knew that they were working hard providing various forecasts, watches and warnings including but not limited to flash flood warnings, high wind warnings, and thunderstorm warnings. I also knew that they were monitoring burn scars in the forecast area for possible impacts from flash flooding and debris flows. Perhaps I am missing, something which is always possible, but I am not aware of any major damage from flash flooding and debris flows in or near recent burn scars. If I later become aware of such damage to burn scars, I will make another post. The Weather Prediction Center issued a storm summary on January 10th with an update on the then current situation in areas impacted by the atmospheric river, it may be found here (and I hope that this link will stay active), they report that the event which began on January 9th was coming to end and provided some snow fall and rain totals with some snow fall totals of over three feet and some rainfall totals over ten inches. Wind gusts are also included in that report with a number of reports of peak wind gusts of over 70 mph.
According to a January 11th report on CNN 17 people have died and flood watches are continuing on January 11th affecting as many as 5 million people in California. As I write this, the CNN article also reports on the efforts to find a five-year boy who was swept from his mother's arms during the floods, damage to cars, destroyed homes, and a forecast for the next few days in the Pacific Northwest.
Here is a map from the Weather Prediction Center of rainfall that fell in California from December 24, 2022 through January 10, 2023.
As another Atmospheric River impacts the West, here's a look at the total precipitation from 12/24 - 1/10 across California. The excessive precipitation has resulted in many floods and even some mudslides, so be sure to protect yourself from the dangers presented by flooding. pic.twitter.com/2YZIwWtxQY
— NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) January 10, 2023
I referred to coverage by the Weather Channel (with photos) and excellent coverage by the Capital Weather Gang of the Washington Post in my January 10th article, if you are interested in reading those articles see my January 10th articles for the direct links. I subscribe to the New York Times where I have been following their coverage of the atmospheric river events in California. I read an excellent article just this morning, January 11th, in their live coverage under storm damage where they included photos and videos of four towns impacted by flood waters, with a map showing you where these towns are located. They also mapped out flooded roads and mudslides as well as river and stream flooding. As someone who is not intimately familiar with California geography I appreciated the maps and I hope you do as well. I am hopefully gifting you today's New York Times article with videos, photos, and maps of damage from the California storms (free access through January 20, 2023).
I continue to keep all those affected by these devastating atmospheric rivers and those yet to come in my thoughts and prayers. With a special shout out to the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices and the River Forecast Centers and all the first responders.
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